DAVID FISHER IN NIUE, Sunday Star Times (NZ), reports:

Niue’s status as a nation is under question after the cyclone that hit the tiny Pacific nation, causing more than $50 million damage.

In the aftermath of the storm, some island leaders are calling for a return to New Zealand governance, and expect the population to fall from about 1200 native Niueans to an unsustainable 500 people.

Such a drop would likely render the nation unviable. Niue currently receives $8m in aid a year from New Zealand, the equivalent of a cash hand-out of around $16,000 per head should the population fall to the predicted 500.

Fears for Niue’s political survival come amid the declaration of a major health crisis over asbestos in the air, accusations of looting among destroyed villages and claims that early plans to alert the island’s population to the cyclone were called off.

Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff yesterday acknowledged that a population drop could force New Zealand to take over Niue’s governance.

Goff said until now, Niueans had been adamant they wanted to retain the status quo - financial and administrative support from New Zealand while retaining their own sovereignty.

But, as the smallest independent state in the world, Goff said the Niuean population was comparable to an average-sized New Zealand secondary school and so its constitutional status remained “under review”.

Goff gave a formal directive to New Zealand government departments last year - not publicly announced at the time - to assist Niue, treating it as an extension of New Zealand.

He said if Niue’s population continued to drop, economies of scale would become even more difficult to achieve. “We need to acknowledge what the people on Niue want, rather than being seen as a former colonial country imposing our will.”

Niue has been self-governing in free association with New Zealand since 1974, and New Zealand has an ongoing responsibility to provide necessary economic and administrative assistance.

Acting premier Toke Talagi said he believed a closer relationship would be formed that would allow Niue to use the machinery of the New Zealand government to perform some public service duties. He said the “administrative” aspect of the 1974 agreement had never been properly defined.

But he cautioned there should be no hasty decisions about Niue returning as part of New Zealand. “If we are going to do that we must go back to the United Nations and say the system they put in place for Niue has failed. We as Niue and New Zealand have failed.”

Talagi predicted a dramatic increase in the number of Niueans who would leave for New Zealand.

“Many, I’m sure, have been thinking about options other than living in Niue. Those people who have contemplated leaving will now be resolved to leaving.

“The fact we have free access to New Zealand means that we have that option. It is a blessing and a curse.”

A blessing, he said, because it offered access to a more developed nation, but a curse for Niue’s future.

Terry Coe, former minister of finance and current MP, said the island should merge with New Zealand in some form.

He predicted the population would drop as low as 500 people. “The morale of people is really quite low . . . people have already started leaving.”

He said businesses, already struggling to survive, would collapse if more people left. “Integration has to come. But it is not going to be cheap for New Zealand. To try and go it alone certainly hasn’t worked.”

He said if the two countries were to merge, people living on Niue needed assurance they would be entitled to all the benefits of New Zealand citizenship including the unemployment benefit and superannuation.

Coe said there were examples in the Pacific of the arrangement Niue and New Zealand could develop. “The Norfolk Island relationship with Australia is a good example.”

Yesterday, Talagi called a halt to the clean-up even as it began, on the advice of New Zealand health officials concerned about the danger posed by asbestos.

Many houses destroyed in the cyclone, built by New Zealand before Niue’s independence in 1974, contain asbestos in the walls and roofs.

Dr Jason Drelaud, of Occupation Safety and Health, said particles of the deadly substance had been released into the air, and were being added to by locals burning wreckage of roofs and walls.

A lack of rain and strong winds were dispersing it further, he said.

The team sent on Thursday to inspect the asbestos houses was allotted two days by the Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry. Yesterday New Zealand high commissioner Sandra Lee Vercoe asked Wellington to let the team stay and train locals.

Drelaud said Niue’s 14 main villages would be the first priority. “It is a serious health risk if we can’t deal with it immediately. Although families are grieving for loss of life or home, this is the highest priority.”

A group of 75 people, kitted out in overalls and respirators, is expected to be trained and to begin work this week collecting asbestos, which is then likely to be shipped back to New Zealand for disposal.

Talagi said: “It will delay our clean-up until we can get rid of the stuff. We have to put everything on hold until it is done.”

A radio message was broadcast yesterday afternoon urging people not to burn rubbish, and to stop cleaning up after the cyclone.

An island pastor also broadcast a plea for looting on the island to stop. Shopkeepers spoken to by the Sunday Star-Times said any surviving goods in their stores had been stolen in the hours after the cyclone.

Wrecked houses were also being targeted by looters.

Hui Paola, who returned to live on the island in 1999, said he visited his ruined shop the morning after the cyclone to find people taking stock from the ruins.

“It’s a shame . . . people were grabbing everything they could get hold of. I felt sorry for them, I couldn’t tell them to leave it alone. When I thought about it afterwards, I realised it was my loss.”

Coe, who runs a mechanic’s and a grocery store, said he had also been looted. He said people were inside the store at 4am the morning after the cyclone hit, while a fierce storm raged on.

Coe was critical of the warning given before the cyclone. Radio Sunshine broadcast the highest alert - red - at 1pm. But Coe claimed a decision to broadcast the alert at 7pm the night before the cyclone struck had been changed by the disaster committee.

Lee Vercoe said the island had underestimated the cyclone’s strength. The warning at 1pm meant many people were still in coastal villages when the storm reached its peak at 1.30pm.